>> This Week’s Forecast
NEW HOME SALES, PENDING HOME SALES AND THE FED... We'll have more reads on the housing market, with Tuesday's New Home Sales forecast to be up slightly for March. Thursday's Pending Home Sales, measuring signed contracts in March for existing homes, are expected up a bit, indicating sales a few months out.The Fed meets Wednesday and although no one expects the FOMC Rate Decision to change anything, we'll have a policy statement giving their opinion on the economy. For hard numbers, we'll have to wait until Friday for Q1 GDP-Advanced, projected to show economic growth slowing.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.Economic Calendar for the Week of Apr 23 – Apr 27
| Date | Time (ET) | Release | For | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
| Tu Apr 24 | 10:00 | Consumer Confidence | Apr | 69.5 | 70.2 | Moderate |
| Tu Apr 24 | 10:00 | New Home Sales | Mar | 320K | 313K | Moderate |
| W Apr 25 | 08:30 | Durable Goods Orders | Mar | -1.9% | 2.4% | Moderate |
| W Apr 25 | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 04/21 | NA | 3.856M | Moderate |
| W Apr 25 | 12:30 | FOMC Rate Decision | 04/25 | 0%-0.25% | 0%-0.25% | HIGH |
| Th Apr 26 | 08:30 | Initial Unemployment Claims | 04/21 | 373K | 386K | Moderate |
| Th Apr 26 | 08:30 | Continuing Unemployment Claims | 04/14 | 3.300M | 3.297M | Moderate |
| Th Apr 26 | 10:00 | Pending Home Sales | Mar | 0.5% | -0.5% | Moderate |
| F Apr 27 | 08:30 | GDP-Advance | Q1 | 2.6% | 3.0% | Moderate |
| F Apr 27 | 08:30 | GDP Price Deflator-Advance | Q1 | 2.2% | 0.9% | Moderate |
| F Apr 27 | 08:30 | Employment Cost Index | Q1 | 0.5% | 0.4% | HIGH |
| F Apr 27 | 09:55 | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-Final | Apr | 75.7 | 75.7 | Moderate |
>> Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... We'll see if this week's Fed meeting gives any indication of when they'll change their super low Funds Rate policy. No one sees a hike any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Jun 20 | 0%–0.25% |
| Jul 31 | 0%–0.25% |
| Sep 12 | 0%–0.25% |
Probability of change from current policy:
| After FOMC meeting on: | Consensus |
| Jun 20 | <1% |
| Jul 31 | <1% |
| Sep 12 | <><><1% | <><>
